Risky journeys – Risk and decision-making among potential irregular migrants in Senegal and Guinea

Abstract

This study contributes an empirical account based on two independently collected surveys in Senegal and Guinea. Consistent with rational choice theories on migration decisions under uncertainty, the results suggest that higher risk perceptions are consistently and strongly associated with reduced intentions to migrate irregularly. Yet, the explanatory power of risk perceptions depends on context and is generally less important than structural and socio-economic factors.

Jasper Dag Tjaden

Professor for Applied Social Research and Public Policy

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